Denver's Next Mayor
Denver IS the Next Mayor's Major Infrastructure Project
I wrote a few months ago about the acute need for the (then-) 17 candidates for Mayor to articulate a clear vision of Denver as the nation’s most attractive city to live, work, play, and raise a family:
The city’s issues are particularly acute this year; the world’s working model has changed and Denver’s been slow to respond. The city can be revived as a global leader for inclusive innovation and sustainable growth – others are doing it. We’re late.
I hope my friends Mike Johnston and Kelly Brough will read the piece — it’s all still relevant. And even more urgent as commercial real estate woes spread nationally , and Denver’s downtown office occupancy stays stalled at 50%. As I said in November,
Demand for central business district office space is collapsing. Some cities are looking at a 40% decline in the value of office space. ‘B” and ‘C’ grade office space in city centers are essentially abandoned as work-from-home becomes standard. Denver, with lots of tech-related office jobs and terrible commuting traffic, is uniquely susceptible.
Work from home means flight from downtown, particularly affecting newer innovation areas like RINO.
Meanwhile, activity centers like Cherry Creek and Golden are taking top employers away from central Denver . Great for them – but those areas are not built around or for diversity and inclusion, values which are basic rights to the next generation of great talent. Denver has been experimenting , but we need plans for downtown – that scale -- now .
Ironically, car traffic is much worse than before the pandemic, as folks struggle to get to and from more places with less predictability during the day. The region’s transit system was comparatively anemic before COVID — it’s not configured as a solution to get to or from the new activity centers, or into or out of town at non-peak hours. This is a self-reinforcing loop; bad traffic reduces the appeal of an office in town; downtown vacancies destroy small businesses, threaten cultural attractions, whose decline reduces the appeal of living or working in town.
The doom-loop is avoidable; cities like Paris have capitalized on the opportunity to rebuild into 15-minute cities, where the main amenities required for life are all within 15 minutes by foot or bike.
The Denver region is rapidly devolving into a ‘70s era 150-minute city instead, where everything everywhere is more remote, and too difficult to access. This is not how we attract and retain talent — or families.
Mayors’ legacies are typically huge and long-lasting infrastructure and development initiatives. In Denver, Federico Pena was responsible for both the Denver International Airport and the RTD system. Wellington Webb
helped develop the Central Platte Valley, where Elitch Gardens and Ball Arena were built and where the River Mile and Ball Arena development could soon rise.
Michael Hancock gets credit for reviving the Wester Stock Show complex, to include the new (and extremely cool — go visit!) CSU Spur campus.
Denver’s next Mayor has to immediately develop a sustainable inclusive growth plan for the city, starting from its core. The City should join Brookings’ ‘Shared Prosperity’ /future of downtowns project:
This specter of an office real estate apocalypse, “urban doom loop,” transit death spiral, or “ghost towns” is filling some urban observers with existential dread. So too are reports of rising crime and unsheltered homelessness in downtowns. However, this fear is not new, nor is it destiny.
But this dread should prompt public and private sector leaders to reassess. In fact, they have an opportunity to seize this moment to chart a new future for American cities—one that reimagines downtowns as prosperous and inclusive places that advance shared prosperity across all neighborhoods.
A group of public and private sector leaders in some of the nation’s largest cities—New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Seattle—have come together at Brookings Metro to do just this.
We should consult experts like Vancouver’s former city planner, Brent Toderian, and Carlos Moreno, the thought leader behind Paris (and Sydney, and Singapore and many others’) delightful transition to a 15-minute city. Richard Florida has worked with Denver before; his new focus on ‘the Creator economy’ is a great frame for the future. Upstart’s Inclusive Creative Economy highlights some good efforts already underway. The design firm Gensler has terrific expertise mapping out prospects to convert empty office towers to other uses. The business and innovation communities will be 100% supportive.
Then Kelly or Mike have to devote themselves to delivery. This isn’t optional. Denver is its own legacy project now.